Analysis of the Indian ASAT test on 27 March 2019

TL;DR

This paper provides a detailed scientific analysis of India's 2019 ASAT test debris, using orbital data to clarify the event's impact and debris characteristics, correcting misconceptions in public reports.

Contribution

It offers a comprehensive orbital debris analysis of the Indian ASAT test, based on publicly available NORAD data, enhancing understanding of post-impact debris behavior.

Findings

Over 60 debris pieces tracked by US space surveillance.

Debris re-entered Earth's atmosphere within 45 days.

Analysis clarifies misconceptions about the event.

Abstract

On March 27, 2019, India tested its first anti-satellite (ASAT) missile against its own "live" satellite, Microsat-R, launched on 24 January, 2019, as part of "Mission Shakti". The test parameters were chosen with extreme caution to minimize the hazard of post-impact debris predicted to re-enter the earth`s atmosphere within 45 days. Of the 400 pieces of debris identified by NASA, more than 60 were large enough to be tracked by the US Air Force`s Space Surveillance Network and US Strategic Command`s Combined Space Operations Center. Much of the information provided in the press about the ASAT missile and Microsat-R was inaccurate or misleading and did not appear to be based on scientific analysis of the data available to the public. To better understand the circumstances of this event, this paper will calculated and present detailed analysis of the tracked post-impact orbit debris from Microsat-R. All results in the current paper are based on orbital data, in the form of the NORAD two-line element (TLE) dataset from space-track.org and the own calculations of the CoLiTec group.