A stochastic model for the lifecycle and track of extreme extratropical cyclones in the North Atlantic

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel stochastic simulation model for extratropical cyclones in the North Atlantic, capturing their lifecycle, tracks, and intensity to better assess extreme weather risks beyond observed data.

Contribution

It presents a new statistical, simulation-based approach incorporating extreme value analysis to model cyclone evolution and movement, extending understanding of their extreme characteristics.

Findings

Able to simulate more extreme storms than observed

Provides a tool for risk assessment of extreme cyclones

Enhances understanding of cyclone lifecycle and variability

Abstract

Extratropical cyclones are large-scale weather systems which are often the source of extreme weather events in Northern Europe, often leading to mass infrastructural damage and casualties. Such systems create a local vorticity maxima which tracks across the Atlantic Ocean and from which can be determined a climatology for the region. While there have been considerable advances in developing algorithms for extracting the track and evolution of cyclones from reanalysis datasets, the data record is relatively short. This justifies the need for a statistical model to represent the more extreme characteristics of these weather systems, specifically their intensity and the spatial variability in their tracks. This paper presents a novel simulation-based approach to modelling the lifecycle of extratropical cyclones in terms of both their tracks and vorticity, incorporating various aspects of cyclone evolution and movement. By drawing on methods from extreme value analysis, we can simulate more extreme storms than those observed, representing a useful tool for practitioners concerned with risk assessment with regard to these weather systems.