# The Identification and Analysis of Indicators for Predicting Malarial Incidence in Zimbabwe

## TL;DR

This paper analyzes various environmental and health indicators to understand and predict malaria incidence in Zimbabwe, aiming to improve early warning systems and targeted interventions.

## Contribution

It presents an analysis of key indicators influencing malaria spread and reports preliminary predictive analytics results for Zimbabwe.

## Key findings

- Temperature and land cover significantly influence malaria incidence.
- Access to hospitals correlates with reduced malaria cases.
- Preliminary models show promise for predicting outbreaks.

## Abstract

With over 50% of the country's population at risk of contracting malaria despite the introduction of several measures to combat the disease, Zimbabwe is one of the eight countries in the Malaria Elimination 8 platform of the Southern African Development Community. Various indicators, including temperature, population distribution, land cover, and access to hospitals affect the incidence and spread of this disease. In this paper, we consider different such indicators and present our analysis of their interaction (e.g., how the Plasmodium falciparum Parasite Rate (PfPR) affects the sickle cell trait) and their effect on malaria incidence in Zimbabwe. We also discuss the results of our preliminary experiments on predictive analytics of malaria incidence based on the indicators we have considered.