# Using In-Game Shot Trajectories to Better Understand Defensive Impact in the NBA

## TL;DR

This paper analyzes NBA shot trajectories to better understand how perimeter defense impacts shot success, leading to improved defensive metrics that are more accurate than traditional statistics.

## Contribution

It introduces a novel analysis of shot trajectories combined with defender and shooter features to assess defensive impact more precisely than existing metrics.

## Key findings

- Tightly contested shots tend to result in missed attempts.
- Shot trajectory data improves accuracy of defensive impact metrics.
- Defender height, distance, and contest angle influence shot success.

## Abstract

As 3-point shooting in the NBA continues to increase, the importance of perimeter defense has never been greater. Perimeter defenders are often evaluated by their ability to tightly contest shots, but how exactly does contesting a jump shot cause a decrease in expected shooting percentage, and can we use this insight to better assess perimeter defender ability? In this paper we analyze over 50,000 shot trajectories from the NBA to explain why, in terms of impact on shot trajectories, shooters tend to miss more when tightly contested. We present a variety of results derived from this shot trajectory data. Additionally, pairing trajectory data with features such as defender height, distance, and contest angle, we are able to evaluate not just perimeter defenders, but also shooters' resilience to defensive pressure. Utilizing shot trajectories and corresponding modeled shot-make probabilities, we are able to create perimeter defensive metrics that are more accurate and less variable than traditional metrics like opponent field goal percentage.