Modeling the ASF (African Swine Fever) spread till summer 2017 and risk assessment for Poland

TL;DR

This study models the spread of African Swine Fever in Poland until 2017, estimating epidemic parameters and assessing spatial risk factors using regression and network analysis to inform control strategies.

Contribution

It introduces a spatial and socio-migratory model of ASF spread in Poland, incorporating disease vectors, pig populations, and landscape features for risk assessment.

Findings

Identification of natural protective barriers within Poland

Estimation of basic reproduction rate of ASF

Prediction of outbreak acceleration in Greater Poland

Abstract

African Swine Fever (ASF) is viral infection which causes acute disease in domestic pigs and wild boar. Although the virus does not cause disease in humans, the impact it has on the economy, especially through trade and farming, is substantial. Recent rapid propagation of the (ASF) from East to West of Europe encouraged us to prepare risk assessment for Poland. The early growth estimation can be easily done by matching incidence trajectory to the exponential function, resulting in the approximation of the force of infection. With these calculations the basic reproduction rate of the epidemic, the effective outbreaks detection and elimination times could be estimated. In regression mode, 380 Polish counties (poviats) have been analysed, where 18 (located in Northeast Poland) have been affected (until August 2017) for spatial propagation (risk assessment for future). Mathematical model has been applied by taking into account: swine amount significance, disease vectors (wild boards) significance. We use pseudogravitational models of short and longrange interactions referring to the socio-migratory behavior of wild boars and the pork production chain significance. Spatial modeling in a certain range of parameters proves the existence of a natural protective barrier within boarders of the Congress Poland. The spread of the disease to the Greater Poland should result in the accelerated outbreak of ASF production chain. In the preliminary setup, we perform regression analysis, network outbreak investigation, early epidemic growth estimation and simulate landscape-based propagation.