Multiverse Predictions for Habitability: Fraction of Life that Develops Intelligence

TL;DR

This paper explores how different catastrophic events influence the development of intelligence in the universe, suggesting that a tranquil cosmic environment is more likely in a multiverse context due to selection effects.

Contribution

It introduces a multiverse-based analysis of extinction causes, highlighting the role of fundamental constants in shaping the likelihood of intelligent life development.

Findings

Gamma ray bursts are less likely to cause extinctions across the multiverse.

Geological extinctions are compatible with multiverse scenarios.

The intermediate disturbance hypothesis aligns well with multiverse predictions.

Abstract

Do mass extinctions affect the development of intelligence? If so, we may expect to be in a universe that is exceptionally placid. We consider the effects of impacts, supervolcanoes, global glaciations, and nearby gamma ray bursts, and how their rates depend on fundamental constants. It is interesting that despite the very disparate nature of these processes, each occurs on timescales of 100 Myr-Gyr. We argue that this is due to a selection effect that favors both tranquil locales within our universe, as well as tranquil universes. Taking gamma ray bursts to be the sole driver of mass extinctions is disfavored in multiverse scenarios, as the rate is much lower for different values of the fundamental constants. In contrast, geological causes of extinction are very compatible with the multiverse. Various frameworks for the effects of extinctions are investigated, and the intermediate disturbance hypothesis is found to be most compatible with the multiverse.