# A Bayesian approach for small area population estimates using multiple administrative records

## TL;DR

This paper introduces a Bayesian method for estimating small area populations using multiple administrative records, providing a flexible and effective alternative especially during intercensal periods, demonstrated through a case study in Colombia.

## Contribution

It presents a novel Bayesian approach that effectively combines multiple administrative data sources for small area population estimates, especially useful during intercensal periods.

## Key findings

- Method is simple and flexible.
- Effective for intercensal population estimates.
- Illustrated with a case study in Colombia.

## Abstract

Small area population estimates are useful for decision making in the private and public sectors. However, in small areas (i.e., those that are difficult to reach and with small population sizes) computing demographic quantities is complicated. Bayesian methods are an alternative for demographic population estimates which uses data from multiple administrative records. In this paper we explore a Bayesian approach which is simple and flexible and represents an alternative procedure for base population estimates particularly powerful for intercensal periods. The applicability of the methodological procedure is illustrated using population pyramids in the municipality of Jamund\'i in Colombia.