# High redshift JWST predictions from IllustrisTNG: Dust modelling and galaxy luminosity functions

## TL;DR

This study uses the IllustrisTNG simulations to predict galaxy luminosity functions at high redshift, emphasizing dust modeling, and forecasts JWST's detection capabilities in various bands.

## Contribution

It introduces a detailed dust attenuation model calibrated with observations, improving predictions of high-redshift galaxy luminosity functions for JWST.

## Key findings

- Good agreement with observed UV luminosity functions at all redshifts.
- Predicted JWST detection of approximately 80 galaxies in a specific NIRCam band at z=8 for a 10^5 s exposure.
- The dust model indicates a stronger redshift evolution of attenuation than previous studies.

## Abstract

The James Webb Space Telescop (JWST) promises to revolutionise our understanding of the early Universe, and contrasting its upcoming observations with predictions of the $\Lambda$CDM model requires detailed theoretical forecasts. Here, we exploit the large dynamic range of the IllustrisTNG simulation suite, TNG50, TNG100, and TNG300, to derive multi-band galaxy luminosity functions from $z=2$ to $z=10$. We put particular emphasis on the exploration of different dust attenuation models to determine galaxy luminosity functions for the rest-frame ultraviolet (UV), and apparent wide NIRCam bands. Our most detailed dust model is based on continuum Monte Carlo radiative transfer calculations employing observationally calibrated dust properties. This calibration results in constraints on the redshift evolution of the dust attenuation normalisation and dust-to-metal ratios yielding a stronger redshift evolution of the attenuation normalisation compared to most previous theoretical studies. Overall we find good agreement between the rest-frame UV luminosity functions and observational data for all redshifts, also beyond the regimes used for the dust-model calibrations. Furthermore, we also recover the observed high redshift ($z=4-6$) UV luminosity versus stellar mass relation, the H$\alpha$ versus star formation rate relation, and the H$\alpha$ luminosity function at $z=2$. The bright end ($M_{\rm UV}>-19.5$) cumulative galaxy number densities are consistent with observational data. For the F200W NIRCam band, we predict that JWST will detect $\sim 80$ ($\sim 200$) galaxies with a signal-to-noise ratio of $10$ ($\sim 5$) within the NIRCam field of view, $2.2\times2.2 \,{\rm arcmin}^{2}$, for a total exposure time of $10^5{\rm s}$ in the redshift range $z=8 \pm 0.5$. These numbers drop to $\sim 10$ ($\sim 40$) for an exposure time of $10^4{\rm s}$.