# Meteor shower forecasting in near-Earth space

## TL;DR

This paper introduces an improved meteor shower forecast algorithm that calculates meteoroid fluxes at various orbital altitudes, aiding spacecraft risk assessment near Earth and lunar environments.

## Contribution

It presents an updated forecast method capable of computing flux enhancements at any Earth or lunar orbital altitude, expanding beyond previous Earth-centric models.

## Key findings

- Enhanced flux calculation accuracy for different orbital altitudes
- Forecasted fluxes for the 2018 Draconid meteor shower at L1 and L2 points
- Demonstrated the algorithm's applicability to lunar and Earth orbits

## Abstract

NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) produces an annual meteor shower forecast in order to help spacecraft operators assess the risk posed by meteoroid streams. Previously, this forecast focused on the International Space Station and therefore reported meteoroid fluxes and enhancement factors at an orbital altitude of 400 km. This paper presents an updated forecast algorithm that has an improved calculation of the flux enhancement produced by showers and can calculate fluxes at any selected Earth or lunar orbital altitude. Finally, we discuss and generate forecasted fluxes for the 2018 Draconid meteor shower, which is expected to produce meteoroid flux enhancements near the Sun-Earth L1 and L2 Lagrange points but not at Earth.