On maximum of Gaussian random field having unique maximum point of its variance
Sergey G. Kobelkov, Vladimir I. Piterbarg

TL;DR
This paper analyzes the probability of large maximum deviations in Gaussian random fields with unique variance maxima, providing exact asymptotics under broad conditions.
Contribution
It derives precise asymptotic formulas for the maximum of Gaussian fields with unique variance peaks, extending previous results to more general settings.
Findings
Exact asymptotic probabilities for large maxima
Applicable under broad conditions for Gaussian fields
Methodology extends Double Sum Method to new scenarios
Abstract
Gaussian random fields on Euclidean spaces whose variances reach their maximum values at unique points are considered. Exact asymptotic behaviors of probabilities of large absolute maximum of theirs trajectories have been evaluated using Double Sum Method under the widest possible conditions.
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On maximum of Gaussian random field having unique maximum point of its
variance††thanks: Partially supported by Russian Science Foundation, grant 14-49-00079. The authors thank Enkelejd Hashorva for fruitful discussions.
Sergey G. Kobelkov Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia, [email protected]
Vladimir I. Piterbarg Lomonosov Moscow state university, Moscow, Russia; Scientific Research Institute of System Development of the Russian Academy of sciences; Federal National Research University “Moscow Power Engineering Institute” [email protected]
Abstract: Gaussian random fields on Euclidean spaces whose variances reach their maximum values at unique points are considered. Exact asymptotic behaviors of probabilities of large absolute maximum of theirs trajectories have been evaluated using Double Sum Method under the widest possible conditions.
Keywords: Non-stationary random field; Gaussian field; large excursion; Pickands’ method; Double sum method.
1 Introduction.
This contribution is a generalization of results of [7]. As discussed in [12], and then in [14], [15], [7], non-stationary Gaussian processes are more subtle to deal with since both the local properties of the variance function at its point of global maximum and those of the covariance function have to be carefully formulated. One can say the same about Gaussian fields, see [14]. Our aim is to show maximum capabilities of the Pickands’ Double Sum Method applying to Gaussian fields with unique point of global maximum; in case of processes this has been done in [7]. The Pickands’ method was developed originally for asymptotic behavior of the maximum tail distribution for Gaussian stationary processes in [11], with corrections in [13]. This method has been generalized to Gaussian random fields, [14], where stationary fields with power like behavior of the covariance function at zero are considered as well as fields with similar behavior of the covariance function at the unique maximum point of variance. However, while the power behavior of the covariance function, with possible slight generalization to regular variation of it, [13], is quite essential for the Pickand’s method, the required in [12], [14] power behavior of the variance, as it has been shown in [7], looks somewhat artificial. Thus the principal task of this contribution is to investigate the tail asymptotic behavior of supremum of non-stationary Gaussian fields by imposing a weak and natural assumption on their variance functions, see Conditions 5 and 6 below. In connection with, notice that in the recent article [2] it is proved that in the non-stationary case the behavior of variance does not need to be exactly power but may be just regularly varying. Here we do not assume even this.
Let be the closure of a bounded open set containing zero, and let be a zero mean a.s. continuous Gaussian random field with covariance function ; denote by its variance function, which is continuous since is a.s. continuous. We study the asymptotic behavior of the probability
[TABLE]
as We need a slightly stronger condition than a.s. continuity of sample paths. Denote
Condition 1
* is a.s. continuous. Moreover, there exists such that Dudley’s integral, [5], [15], for the standardized field , is finite.*
Notice that for homogeneous Gaussian fields this condition is also necessary for existing of a.s. continuous version of the field (X. Fernique [10]). We need this condition in order to use V. A. Dmitrovsky’s inequality for estimating the exit probability from above. For reader’s convenience we give a corollary from the inequality adapted to our purposes, see Corollary 8.2.1, [15].
Proposition 1
(V. Dmitrovsky, [3], [4], [15]) Let Condition 1 be hold. Then there exists , such that as , and for any ,
[TABLE]
where
Condition 2
* reaches its absolute maximum on at only *
Without loss of generality assume that Notice also that by time parameter shift the maximum point can be made arbitrary, with corresponding conditions on the parameter set. From Condition 2 it follows in particular that the normalized field , see Condition 1, exists. Furthermore, it follows from it that and the equality holds only for
Notice that we do not consider the case of boundary maximum point of variance. It can be considered with described here tools, with involving the structure of the boundary near the point. Such the consideration could not require any new ideas but makes the text longer and even more difficult to read. We would have to introduce a series new Pickands like constants. Only in the Talagrand case (see below) the asymptotic behavior reminds the same in this boundary maximum point case.
Condition 3
(Local stationarity at ). There exists a covariance function of a homogeneous random field with for all such that
[TABLE]
Remark 1
In contrast to [12], [14], [15], [7], and other works, we assume here local stationarity in terms of covariance function, not correlation (normed covariance) function. This is because we would like to impose minimal number of assumptions on the variance function. In particular, we do not assume Hölder condition in any neighborhood of zero, like we did this in [7].
For vectors define For a set we write
Condition 4
There exists a basis in , a vector function , , and a positive for all function such that for any written in these coordinates,
[TABLE]
uniformly in from any closed set.
In slightly other words, Condition 4 means that for some orthogonal matrix , (2) is fulfilled for instead of , that is
[TABLE]
Remark that by definition of uniform convergence to a positive for all non-zero function with , from Condition 4 it follows that is continuous, and for any continuous function with
[TABLE]
Consider a simple example. Let and
[TABLE]
as , where . For such covariance function one cannot find satisfying (2), whereas rotating the basis turning at an angle of we have,
[TABLE]
as and with
From now on we assume that the basis in satisfies Condition 4. From Conditions 3 and 4 it follows a regular variation property of . Indeed, remark first that since is continuous at zero, we have as Denote coordinate vectors in From Condition 4, since is continuous, it also follows that
[TABLE]
and since the functions on the right are positive, continuous and cannot be equal identically to one (), regularly varies at zero with positive degree and for some . Notice that from properties of positive defined functions it follows that for all That is, denoting by the corresponding slowly varying functions, we write for all that Hence, using (2) and the definition of slowly variation,
[TABLE]
as and
[TABLE]
as From here it follows that for some
[TABLE]
It is shown in [7] that
[TABLE]
as where is the de Bruijn conjugate of , see details below and also in [1], and slowly varies as well. Moreover, in [7] it is shown that (2) holds for any such that Consequently, without loss of generality we assume in the following that all are monotone. Furthermore, using this argument and the fact that the ratio of two slowly varying positive functions, say and slowly varies as well, having in mind again its monotone equivalent, we may write that
[TABLE]
Let us say that if if and if We use these definitions in the proof of the following proposition.
Proposition 2
Let Conditions 3 and 4 be fulfilled for a covariance function Then for any vector the function regularly varies at zero with degree Moreover, if then
**Proof: ** Denote
[TABLE]
Introduce the “main” index set related to with property
[TABLE]
Numerate indexes from and denote
[TABLE]
where, as above, we mean monotone equivalent ratios, see (6). Put and look at the behavior of when We have by choice of
[TABLE]
Hence, by Condition 4,
[TABLE]
where Now put ; we have, as above,
[TABLE]
Using Theorems 1.5.12, 1.5.13 (de Bruijn Lemma) and Proposition 1.5.15, [1], similarly to [7], we get that for some slowly varying function ,
[TABLE]
which together with (8,9) gives
[TABLE]
that is, regularly varies at direction . Further, if and as then by properties of positive defined functions, which contradicts Condition 3. Thus Proposition is established.
Remark 2
Remark that from Proposition 2 it follows that if then the corresponding slowly varying function is bounded from above. So, since as , the slowly varied function is bounded from below by a positive constant, that is,
[TABLE]
Moreover, it is obvious that (10) is valid for any , . We shall use this below.
Remark 3
Observe that for any direction we just choose appropriate from the collection of Condition 4.
Now assume a behavior of near its point of absolute maximum. We shall see from the proof of Lemma 2 that the crucial point is the behavior of the ratio
[TABLE]
as In view of Condition 4 we assume the following.
Condition 5
For any there exists the limit
[TABLE]
In case when the limit is equal to zero we speak about the * stationary-like case*. If the limit is equal to infinity, we refer to the Talagrand case, since M. Talagrand, [16], has shown that in most general conditions, for any closed set and a Gaussian a. s. continuous function , , having unique point of maximum of variance, say, at ,
[TABLE]
In our conditions we show this below. At last, we say about the * transition case *if is neither zero nor infinity. Denote correspondingly
[TABLE]
We shall see that properties of these sets together with all above Conditions follow asymptotic behavior of the probability . Consider one more simple example which shows that dimensions of may be arbitrary. Let
[TABLE]
[TABLE]
Here one has not to change the basis, having obvious value of It is easy to calculate that
- •
If then
- •
If then
- •
If then
- •
If then
- •
So on.
2 Homogeneous Gaussian fields
Let satisfy the assumptions of the previous section, and be an a.s. continuous homogeneous zero-mean Gaussian field with covariance function satisfying Conditions 3 and 4.
Lemma 1
In the above notations and conditions, for any bounded closed ,
[TABLE]
as where
[TABLE]
and is a Gaussian a.s. continuous field with
[TABLE]
The proof of this lemma is a simple repetition of the proof of Lemma 6.1 of [14] with applying Condition 4 which implies among other that exists.
Theorem 1
In the assumptions of this section, for any closure of an open set,
[TABLE]
as where denotes the volume of and
[TABLE]
This assertion holds even if depends of , provided there exist boxes such that with and for some as
The proof of the theorem follows step-by-step the proof of Theorem 7.1, [14].
3 Non-homogeneous Gaussian fields
Now we give two general results for all described above types of behavior of . The first one is a standard local lemma of Double Sum Method, a generalization of Lemma 1, see [14], [15].
Lemma 2
Under the Conditions – , for any
[TABLE]
as where
[TABLE]
with if , and if .
The proof of this lemma is a repetition of the corresponding lemma proof in [14], using the Conditions 1 – 5. The only essential addition to the proof is careful consideration the points , noticing that the weak convergence of the field
[TABLE]
conditioned on in can be restricted to that in That is, it can be proved that in the case of non-empty
[TABLE]
The second general result is extraction of an informative parameter set. Denote
[TABLE]
where is taken from Proposition 1, and
[TABLE]
Lemma 3
In the above conditions and notations,
[TABLE]
as
**Proof: **Denote where is taken from Condition 1. By Condition 2 we have, By Borell-TIS inequality, see, for example, [14], Theorem D.1, for all sufficiently large
[TABLE]
and the right hand part is exponentially smaller than . Indeed, by assumption, hence as Further, we have for all sufficiently large
[TABLE]
hence, by Proposition 1 we have,
[TABLE]
By the above trivial lower estimate, the right hand part is again infinitely smaller than Thus Lemma is established..
4 Gaussian fields with unique maximum point of variance.
We consider first the Gaussian field satisfying Conditions 1 – 5, where is a homogeneous centered Gaussian field with covariance function satisfying Condition 4 and satisfies Condition 5. Then, using standard inequalities including Slepian Lemma, applied in , we pass to the general case.
4.1 Stationary like case.
Here we consider the stationary-like case, that is for all Fix sufficiently large and denote
[TABLE]
It will be convenient to extend to the unit cube having
[TABLE]
with the boundary of By Lemma 3, the only behavior of in any small neighborhood of plays role for the desired asymptotic behavior. Hence we assume that is continuous in and, taking in mind (14),
[TABLE]
Introduce the Laplace type integral,
[TABLE]
Notice that its asymptotic behavior as depends only on behavior in a vicinity of zero, see, for example, [8].
Proposition 3
Let Conditions 1–5 be fulfilled. If further for all , we have,
[TABLE]
as .
Proof: As it is mentioned above, we consider first a simplified model for that is so that satisfies Conditions 1 – 5. Recall that we consider the case
[TABLE]
Denote
[TABLE]
Obviously that for all , and it tends to zero as Moreover,
[TABLE]
By (18), (19) and the definition of ,
[TABLE]
Let an increasing be such that
[TABLE]
The box
[TABLE]
satisfies conditions Theorem 1, hence,
[TABLE]
with as Denote
[TABLE]
For all with introduce events
[TABLE]
and
[TABLE]
By definition of after some easy calculations we have that
[TABLE]
Hence all the boxes satisfy Theorem 1 conditions with instead of Therefore
[TABLE]
and
[TABLE]
By definition (23) of there exists a positive non-increasing tending to zero as such that for all
[TABLE]
Further, since as and we get that for all
[TABLE]
By Bonferroni inequality
[TABLE]
and
[TABLE]
Write
[TABLE]
Using
[TABLE]
since as we have for some positive with uniformly in
[TABLE]
Hence, by (24)
[TABLE]
where
[TABLE]
Remark that all the relations (27 – 29) are also valid for for with some other having the same properties, say, for Hence we also have (30) with and instead of and Denote
[TABLE]
Notice that we used above for visibility. We have that and are integral sums for the integral
[TABLE]
Besides,
[TABLE]
therefore from inequalities (30) and mentioned there their counterparts for and it follows that for some tending to zero as
[TABLE]
Now, using given by (14 – 16) definitions of and we have,
[TABLE]
Indeed, it follows from (12) that so that for all sufficiently small lying outside of the integration domain,
Now estimate from above the double sum in (26). We have for non neighboring boxes,
[TABLE]
where is the variance of and
[TABLE]
For the increments of the zero mean field
[TABLE]
with unit variance, one can get by simple algebra that for an absolute constant
[TABLE]
From this inequality by standard Gaussian technique including Slepian inequality it follows that the right hand part of (32) is at most
[TABLE]
where the constant does not depend of Now write,
[TABLE]
Using that regularly varies at zero in any direction , , with indexes , see (7), we get for some positive and that Remark that from (2) and followed then argument in case the corresponding slowly varying function is bounded at zero otherwise square mean derivative of in this direction exists and is a constant, this contradicts the conditions on and Thus we have for non neighboring ,
[TABLE]
Therefore, by analogy to (27, 28), we have,
[TABLE]
where we also used that and Finally we have for non neighboring that is,
[TABLE]
Summing up, denoting , we have for some ,
[TABLE]
By the above argument the last sum multiplied by is an integral sum for the integral with inessential changing of the integration domain. Obvious application of Schwarz inequality gives
[TABLE]
for any and all sufficiently large The first exponent in the right hand part of (33) gives that the double sum over non neighboring intervals is infinitely smaller than both the single sums in (25, 26).
Consider the double sum over neighboring intervals, that is over with This part is quite similar to the corresponding argument in [14], [15]. Let for definiteness Denote
[TABLE]
and write
[TABLE]
The sum of the first probabilities on the right can be estimated using the same argument as the estimation of single sums above. Wherein the multiplier appears which gives that the sum is infinitely smaller the single sum above. For the second probability on the right the argument of the double sum estimation over non-neighboring boxes can be applied because of the distance between boxes is not zero but This also gives that the sum is infinitely smaller than the single sums.
Hence in view of already mentioned standard passage from the particular to the general Gaussian process (by applying Slepian inequality), the proof follows. Thus Proposition is established.
Remark 4
In the case when the fraction (18) tends to zero sufficiently fast, for example for
[TABLE]
with some the estimation of the double sum is quite similar to that in [14], [15]. But the fraction may tend to zero very slowly, so that for this situation the evaluations and estimations have to be more precise, what we have done here.
4.2 Talagrand case.
Proposition 4
In the above conditions, if then
[TABLE]
as
Proof: By Proposition 2 and Remark 2, in view of Lemma 3, we have that for and all sufficiently large , Further, similarly to the proof of Lemma 8.4, [14], we get that
[TABLE]
Observe that in the latter inequality we again pass to a homogeneous field using monotonicity with respect to the variance and Slepian’s inequality, with following application of Lemma 1. Then, as in the proof of Lemma 8.4, we use Monotone Convergence Theorem to let
4.3 The transition case
Asymptotic evaluations for the exceeding probabilities in this case are quite similar to the corresponding evaluations in [12], [14], [15], with applying Lemma 2. Take in the Lemma
[TABLE]
and denote
[TABLE]
First we apply Lemma 2 for then we estimate from above the sum of the probabilities over with using the same Lemma and regular varying of in any direction. Then we let tend to infinity. On this way we get the following.
Proposition 5
In the above conditions, if then
[TABLE]
as with
4.4 General case.
First formulate several simple generalizations of above propositions. The first one is a generalization of Proposition 4.
Proposition 6
In the above conditions,
[TABLE]
The proof repeats the proof of Proposition 4, with Lemma 3 application. The second one is a simple reformulation of Proposition 5.
Proposition 7
In the above conditions, if then
[TABLE]
as where
[TABLE]
The proof starts with the set
[TABLE]
with followed corresponding definition of
The proof of next proposition repeats the proof of Proposition 3.
Proposition 8
If , then
[TABLE]
as where
[TABLE]
Recall that is the unit cube, see (16).
Notice that the case means by definition. Assume now that Generally, since the behavior of near its maximum point can be various, may consist of several non-intersecting connected manifolds of various dimensions. In order to avoid technical difficulties due to too exotic behavior of assume the following.
Condition 6
The set consists of finite number of smooth (two times continuously differentiable) disjoint manifolds, namely,
[TABLE]
Assume that for any -dimensional volume of is finite,
Fix with and consider in curvilinear coordinates. For using Proposition 2, choose coordinate vectors of this curvilinear coordinates and complete them to a basis in and denote
[TABLE]
with corresponding positive limits
[TABLE]
where is written in these coordinates. Remark that by Proposition 2, functions are taken from the collection of Condition 4, but the choice of them can depend on and the index of the manifold. In fact, where is an orthogonal transition matrix to the curvilinear coordinates with the above orthogonal complement to a basis in
We have,
[TABLE]
By analogy with relations (18 - 20) in Proposition 3 proof, we build a partition of with similar to -dimensional blocks, denote them by where is a grid satisfying (39 - 41) for all correspondingly, that is,
[TABLE]
Similarly to the proof of Proposition 3, but for instead of using Theorem 1 to get (22) for all and thicken the grid unboundedly, we get, using Condition 6, the following Lemma.
Lemma 4
For any from the partition (38) with
[TABLE]
as , where is an elementary -dimensional volume of and is given by (14).
Remark 5
Notice that if a manifold is a linear subspace, all do not depend of so that
[TABLE]
as .
Turning to (38), we have,
Proposition 9
If
[TABLE]
as .
Remark that the summands in (43) can have different orders in depending on the dimension of the corresponding component on behavior of s and on behavior of . Hence only summands with slowest order play a role. Remark also that by Proposition 8, if for some no summands in (43) contribute to the asymptotics of
Proof: We have only to estimate the double probabilities where and are events generated by corresponding partitions in different component manifolds. In view of Proposition 2, denote
[TABLE]
where is defined in (7), the minimal index of regular variation of at zero, Then for the sets from partitions of the component manifolds containing in the manifold we have that all the sets are not neighboring, and, as above, the sum of the corresponding double probabilities is negligibly small with respect to any single sum over the partitions of Furthermore, the probability is also infinitely smaller than the single sums. Finally, as it was mentioned above, the only summands with slowest order give contribution in the final asymptotic behavior, we may take the multipliers out of the sum. Thus Proposition is established.
4.5 Main result
Now we collect all obtained above asymptotic relations.
Theorem 2
Let be a bounded open set in containing zero, and be an a.s. continuous zeromean Gaussian field satisfying Conditions 1 - 6. Then for the probability given by (1) the following asymptotic relations take places as
- •
If satisfies the relation (17).
- •
If and satisfies the relation (43).
- •
If and and satisfies the relation (36).
- •
If satisfies the relation (34).
**Proof: **Since and both and have order which is infinitely smaller than provided is not empty, the first two assertions follow from Propositions 3 and 9. The third assertion follows from Propositions 6 and 7. The last relation is given in Proposition 4.
Remark that the assertions of this Theorem agree with assertions of Theorem 3, [7], where There the case is described in the items one ( consists of two manifolds) and two ( consists of one manifold, with the list of corresponding cases for dimensions of and ). The case is considered in the remainding items, with various relations between dimensions of and
5 Examples and discussion.
First give examples of covariance functions satisfying the above conditions.
5.1 ** **Example 1. Covariance functions of Pickands type.
As we have seen, in one dimension case, the only behavior of satisfying Condition 4 is as following,
[TABLE]
up to time scaling, with and slowly varying In two dimension case one can see two types of the behavior,
[TABLE]
up to linear time transformation of and with the same properties of s and s. Observe that the first one can be a covariance function of two independent stationary processes with covariance functions as (44). Going this way, that is, summing independent fields with different time parameters, one comes in -dimension case to a “structured”covariance function,
[TABLE]
where is a partition of coordinates of , . In the case without s such functions are considered in [14], the corresponding normalization is also given there, namely
[TABLE]
with
[TABLE]
One can continue considering sums of independent fields, even with different linear transforms of time parameters. A general case with is considered in [2], see the following example.
5.2 Example 2. The field from [2].
In [2] the covariance function satisfying
[TABLE]
is considered, where are regularly varying at zero functions with indexes The rank of matrix can be or The first case is described here by Condition 4. When the rank is equal to the standardized field in corresponding basis is equal to with a Gaussian stationary process that is the field is degenerated along In case of zero rank, the standardized field is with a Gaussian random variable Here such degenerated cases are not considered, but in a corresponding basis one can represent as a product of two spaces, dimension of one of them should be equal to the rank of a matrix which generalized to -dimension case, with subsequent application of given here results.
Notice that in [2] the function is also assumed to have a similar to form, with some other regularly varying functions. The corresponding matrix must be, of course, not degenerated, otherwise one has infinitely many maximum points. From results here it follows that such restriction on the variance is not necessary, in contrast of the above representation for the covariance function. We would like to mention that discussions with authors of [2] helped us a lot in formulation of our Conditions.
5.3 On behavior of the variance.
An example of very gentle behavior of the variance function at zero is considered in [7], Example 1. Its trivial -dimension generalization can be as following,
[TABLE]
as where is a strictly positive function given on the unit sphere Such behavior is a subject of Proposition 3, the behavior of the integral as can be investigated similarly to that in [7].
A generalization of the model from [2] is
[TABLE]
with similar and a collection of slowly variable at zero functions Remark again that, in contrast of Pickands’ behavior of the covariance function at zero, the behavior of can be very variable.
An example when in the stationary like case is close to is also considered in [7] for the one dimension case. Let , , be a family of slowly varying at zero functions. Take and denote When as we have when the limit is equal to infinity, so on.
One should assume, following Condition 6, that the limit changes from zero to non-zero and to infinity at most finite number of times. In [7], is taken, that is, only the stationary like case is considered.
It is possible to evaluate similarly to [7] asymptotic behavior of for particular cases of and described here behavior of
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