Survey of ETA prediction methods in public transport networks

TL;DR

This survey reviews bus ETA prediction methods using AVL data, highlighting inconsistencies in reporting standards and emphasizing the need for universal benchmarks and standards to enable objective comparisons.

Contribution

It categorizes ETA prediction literature based on input data and identifies reporting inconsistencies, proposing standards for improved comparability.

Findings

Inconsistent accuracy measurements across studies.

Frequent omission of benchmark algorithms.

Need for universal standards and benchmark datasets.

Abstract

The majority of public transport vehicles are fitted with Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) systems generating a continuous stream of data. The availability of this data has led to a substantial body of literature addressing the development of algorithms to predict Estimated Times of Arrival (ETA). Here research literature reporting the development of ETA prediction systems specific to busses is reviewed to give an overview of the state of the art. Generally, reviews in this area categorise publications according to the type of algorithm used, which does not allow an objective comparison. Therefore this survey will categorise the reviewed publications according to the input data used to develop the algorithm. The review highlighted inconsistencies in reporting standards of the literature. The inconsistencies were found in the varying measurements of accuracy preventing any comparison and the frequent omission of a benchmark algorithm. Furthermore, some publications were lacking in overall quality. Due to these highlighted issues, any objective comparison of prediction accuracies is impossible. The bus ETA research field therefore requires a universal set of standards to ensure the quality of reported algorithms. This could be achieved by using benchmark datasets or algorithms and ensuring the publication of any code developed.