Dynamic real-time risk analytics of uncontrollable states in complex internet of things systems, cyber risk at the edge

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel goal-oriented dependency model for real-time, quantitative self-assessment of cyber risk posture in complex IoT systems, addressing a significant gap in existing risk assessment methods.

Contribution

It develops a new goal-oriented dependency model that enables the assessment of uncontrollable risk states in IoT, improving cyber risk management.

Findings

Identified four IoT risk assessment approaches and highlighted goal-oriented dependency modeling as the most effective.

Presented a transformation roadmap for IoT systems to reach a target cybersecurity state.

Validated the model's capability to quantify uncontrollable cyber risks in complex IoT environments.

Abstract

The Internet of Things (IoT) triggers new types of cyber risks. Therefore, the integration of new IoT devices and services requires a self-assessment of IoT cyber security posture. By security posture this article refers to the cybersecurity strength of an organisation to predict, prevent and respond to cyberthreats. At present, there is a gap in the state of the art, because there are no self-assessment methods for quantifying IoT cyber risk posture. To address this gap, an empirical analysis is performed of 12 cyber risk assessment approaches. The results and the main findings from the analysis is presented as the current and a target risk state for IoT systems, followed by conclusions and recommendations on a transformation roadmap, describing how IoT systems can achieve the target state with a new goal-oriented dependency model. By target state, we refer to the cyber security target that matches the generic security requirements of an organisation. The research paper studies and adapts four alternatives for IoT risk assessment and identifies the goal-oriented dependency modelling as a dominant approach among the risk assessment models studied. The new goal-oriented dependency model in this article enables the assessment of uncontrollable risk states in complex IoT systems and can be used for a quantitative self-assessment of IoT cyber risk posture.