Some scientific knowledge is a dangerous thing: overconfidence grows non-linearly with knowledge

TL;DR

This study reveals that confidence in scientific knowledge increases non-linearly, often surpassing actual knowledge, especially at intermediate levels, which impacts attitudes towards science and has implications for science communication.

Contribution

The paper introduces a new indirect confidence metric and demonstrates that confidence grows faster than knowledge, challenging existing models like the Dunning-Kruger effect.

Findings

Confidence increases non-linearly with knowledge

Largest confidence gaps occur at intermediate knowledge levels

High-confidence, intermediate-knowledge groups have less positive attitudes towards science

Abstract

Overconfidence is a prevalent problem and particularly consequential in its relation with scientific knowledge: being unaware of one`s own ignorance can affect behaviours and threaten public policies and health. We introduce both analytical and methodological changes to the study of confidence in science knowledge and in attitudes towards science and apply them to four large surveys, spanning 30 years in Europe and the USA. We propose a new indirect confidence metric that does not rely on self-reporting or peer comparison, and study how knowledge and confidence vary across their full scale. We find that confidence grows much faster than knowledge, giving rise to a non-linear relationship, with the largest confidence gaps appearing at intermediate knowledge levels. These high-confidence \textbackslash intermediate-knowledge groups also display the least positive attitudes towards science, with important consequences for science communication. These results are contrary to current models, including the predictions of the Dunning-Kruger effect, and we discuss how our model, if correct, can guide future research and communication policies.