# Estimating the three-month series of the Chilean Gross Domestic Product

## TL;DR

This paper applies a methodology combining Engle-Granger cointegration and State Space models to estimate quarterly Chilean GDP from 1965 to 2009, aiming to improve accuracy and consistency with annual data.

## Contribution

It adapts and applies a combined econometric approach to produce more accurate quarterly GDP estimates for Chile over a long historical period.

## Key findings

- Improved quarterly GDP estimates aligning with annual data.
- Reduced measurement errors in GDP estimation.
- Enhanced consistency of quarterly and annual GDP data.

## Abstract

In this paper the methodology proponed by Cerqueira et al, 2008; is applied to estimate the three-month series of the Chilean Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the period composed between 1965 and 2009. In First place, the equation of Engle- Granger is estimated using the data of the yearly GPD and related variables. The estimated coeffcients of this regression are used to obtain a First estimation of the three-month GDP with measurements errors. Then a State Space model is estimated through Benchmarking in order to improve the preliminary estimation of the GDP with the purpose of eliminating the maximum error of measurement and in order that the sum of the three-month values coincide with the yearly GDP.