Early-career setback and future career impact
Yang Wang, Benjamin F. Jones, Dashun Wang

TL;DR
This study investigates how early-career setbacks influence future scientific impact, revealing that while setbacks increase attrition, they also correlate with higher long-term research performance among persevering scientists.
Contribution
It provides novel evidence that early setbacks can enhance long-term scientific impact, challenging the notion that early success is the sole predictor of future achievement.
Findings
Near misses increase attrition risk by over 10%.
Scientists with early setbacks outperform peers in long-term impact.
Early setbacks may serve as a performance catalyst for persevering scientists.
Abstract
Setbacks are an integral part of a scientific career, yet little is known about whether an early-career setback may augment or hamper an individual's future career impact. Here we examine junior scientists applying for U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) R01 grants. By focusing on grant proposals that fell just below and just above the funding threshold, we compare "near-miss" with "near-win" individuals to examine longer-term career outcomes. Our analyses reveal that an early-career near miss has powerful, opposing effects. On one hand, it significantly increases attrition, with one near miss predicting more than a 10% chance of disappearing permanently from the NIH system. Yet, despite an early setback, individuals with near misses systematically outperformed those with near wins in the longer run, as their publications in the next ten years garnered substantially higher impact.…
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