# Markov-chain-inspired search for MH370

## TL;DR

This paper develops Markov-chain models based on satellite-tracked buoy data to probabilistically trace the drift of debris from MH370, constraining its crash site in the Indian Ocean.

## Contribution

It introduces a novel Markov-chain approach using historical buoy data to estimate the probable crash location of MH370.

## Key findings

- Constrained the crash site near 25°S on the Inmarsat arc.
- Identified most probable drift paths using spectral analysis and Bayesian estimation.
- Provided a probabilistic framework for future debris tracking and search efforts.

## Abstract

Markov-chain models are constructed for the probabilistic description of the drift of marine debris from Malaysian Airlines flight MH370. En route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing, the MH370 mysteriously disappeared in the southeastern Indian Ocean on 8 March 2014, somewhere along the arc of the 7th ping ring around the Inmarsat-3F1 satellite position when the airplane lost contact. The models are obtained by discretizing the motion of undrogued satellite-tracked surface drifting buoys from the global historical data bank. A spectral analysis, Bayesian estimation, and the computation of most probable paths between the Inmarsat arc and confirmed airplane debris beaching sites are shown to constrain the crash site, near 25$^{\circ}$S on the Inmarsat arc.