# Influence of petroleum and gas trade on EU economies from the reduced Google matrix analysis of UN COMTRADE data

## TL;DR

This paper uses the reduced Google matrix method on UN COMTRADE data to analyze how petroleum and gas trade impacts EU economies, considering all trade pathways and sensitivities to price changes from key exporters.

## Contribution

It introduces a novel application of the REGOMAX algorithm to assess trade influence propagation in global petroleum and gas markets, accounting for indirect trade pathways.

## Key findings

- Identifies key trade influence pathways from Russia, USA, Saudi Arabia, and Norway to EU countries.
- Shows the sensitivity of EU countries to product price increases from specific exporters.
- Demonstrates the effectiveness of the REGOMAX approach over traditional trade flow analysis.

## Abstract

Using the United Nations COMTRADE database we apply the reduced Google matrix (REGOMAX) algorithm to analyze the multiproduct world trade in years 2004-2016. Our approach allows to determine the trade balance sensitivity of a group of countries to a specific product price increase from a specific exporting country taking into account all direct and indirect trade pathways via all world countries exchanging 61 UN COMTRADE identified trade products. On the basis of this approach we present the influence of trade in petroleum and gas products from Russia, USA, Saudi Arabia and Norway determining the sensitivity of each EU country. We show that the REGOMAX approach provides a new and more detailed analysis of trade influence propagation comparing to the usual approach based on export and import flows.