What you get is not always what you see: pitfalls in solar array assessment using overhead imagery

TL;DR

This paper examines the challenges and pitfalls in assessing small solar PV arrays using overhead imagery, highlighting issues in evaluation practices and providing insights for improving large-scale energy assessment methods.

Contribution

It identifies key sources of heterogeneity in model evaluation and offers recommendations to improve the reliability of solar PV detection from satellite imagery.

Findings

Traditional evaluation methods may be overly optimistic

Heterogeneity affects model performance assessment

Recommendations for standardized validation practices

Abstract

Effective integration planning for small, distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) arrays into electric power grids requires access to high quality data: the location and power capacity of individual solar PV arrays. Unfortunately, national databases of small-scale solar PV do not exist; those that do are limited in their spatial resolution, typically aggregated up to state or national levels. While several promising approaches for solar PV detection have been published, strategies for evaluating the performance of these models are often highly heterogeneous from study to study. The resulting comparison of these methods for practical applications for energy assessments becomes challenging and may imply that the reported performance evaluations are overly optimistic. The heterogeneity comes in many forms, each of which we explore in this work: the level of spatial aggregation, the validation of ground truth, inconsistencies in the training and validation datasets, and the degree of diversity of the locations and sensors from which the training and validation data originate. For each, we discuss emerging practices from the literature to address them or suggest directions of future research. As part of our investigation, we evaluate solar PV identification performance in two large regions. Our findings suggest that traditional performance evaluation of the automated identification of solar PV from satellite imagery may be optimistic due to common limitations in the validation process. The takeaways from this work are intended to inform and catalyze the large-scale practical application of automated solar PV assessment techniques by energy researchers and professionals.