# Does the winning team always covers the point spread? A study in professional basketball since 1990

## TL;DR

This study investigates whether winning teams in professional basketball consistently cover the point spread, analyzing data since 1990 to understand the relationship between winning and covering in sports betting.

## Contribution

It provides an empirical analysis of the correlation between winning and covering the point spread using regression analysis and expert system integration in NBA data since 1990.

## Key findings

- Winning teams do not always cover the point spread.
- Regression analysis reveals a complex relationship between winning percentage and covering.
- The study introduces an expert system for indirect factor analysis of betting variables.

## Abstract

In sports betting it is easier to predict the winner of a game match than the team that covers the bet. Since, a winner team might not cover a bet. This study focuses on the relation of the variable win to the betting variable cover the point spread. The study is performed with data from professional basketball (betting lines and scores) and tries to answer the question: Does the winning team always covers the point spread?. In order to answer this question, a regression analysis is performed taking into account the most and less winning teams, together with their betting variables since the 1990-1991 NBA season. The regression results are inserted in the SPXS expert system revealing an indirect factor analysis that correlates betting variables with teams winning percentages.