Hazard assessment of potential storm tide inundation at Southeast China coast

TL;DR

This study assesses storm tide hazards along Southeast China's coast, analyzing historical data, modeling scenarios, and mapping inundation risks, emphasizing the impact of climate change-induced sea level rise and tropical cyclone intensification.

Contribution

It introduces a comprehensive hazard assessment framework combining historical analysis, hydrodynamic modeling, and GIS mapping for storm tide inundation risk in Southeast China.

Findings

Max water elevation can reach over 6 meters without climate change effects.

Inundation area can expand by 50% considering climate change impacts.

Identified key regions at high risk of storm tide inundation.

Abstract

Hazard assessment of storm tide is addressed for Southeast China coast in this study. In particular, we pay attention to the scarcely discussed issue of storm tide inundation. The main procedures of hazard assessment are: 1) non-stationary tropical cyclone intensification (TCI) and sea level rise (SLR) for the study area are analyzed based on the long-term historical database; 2) four typical scenarios of storm tide are examined using the surge-tide-wave coupled hydrodynamic model; 3) the potential inundated regions are identified on the GIS platform. The distributions of water elevation show that high water elevation tends to occur in the bays and around the estuaries. Without considering the impacts of TCI and SLR, the maximal water elevations caused by the typhoon wind of 100-year recurrence period can reach as high as 6.06 m, 5.82 m and 5.67 m around Aojiang, Feiyunjiang and Oujiang river estuaries, respectively. In this circumstance, about 533 km2 area is under the threat of storm tide inundation. TCI and SLR due to climate change can further deteriorate the situation and enhance the risk of inundation there. The maximal water elevations at the aforementioned three estuaries considering the potential non-stationary TCI and SLR in 2100s can be as high as 7.02m, 6.67 m, 6.44m, respectively. The corresponding potential inundation area expands by 50% compared with the situation without considering TCI and SLR. In addition, the remotely sensed maps and inundation durations of the hardest hit regions are provided as well.