# Ex-ante measure of patent quality reveals intrinsic fitness for citation-network growth

## TL;DR

This paper introduces an ex-ante patent fitness measure based on invention attributes at grant time, which predicts citation network growth by combining preferential attachment and aging effects, enhancing understanding of complex network dynamics.

## Contribution

It presents a novel ex-ante fitness parameter for patents that predicts citation growth, integrating it with network growth mechanisms without relying on patent-specific features.

## Key findings

- The fitness parameter effectively predicts citation network growth.
- Citation network growth is driven by both preferential attachment and aging.
- The study bridges fit-gets-richer and rich-gets-richer paradigms.

## Abstract

We have constructed a fitness parameter, characterizing the intrinsic attractiveness for patents to be cited, from attributes of the associated inventions known at the time a patent is granted. This exogenously obtained fitness is shown to determine the temporal growth of the citation network in conjunction with mechanisms of preferential attachment and obsolescence-induced ageing that operate without reference to characteristics of individual patents. Our study opens a window on understanding quantitatively the interplay of the rich-gets-richer and fit-gets-richer paradigms that have been suggested to govern the growth dynamics of real-world complex networks.