# Can we predict the impact conditions of metre-sized meteoroids?

## TL;DR

This study demonstrates that it is possible to constrain the impact conditions of metre-sized meteoroids in advance by analyzing impact location, time, and NEO distribution, using the Gravitational Ray Tracing algorithm.

## Contribution

The paper introduces a method to predict impact conditions of metre-sized meteoroids using gravitational ray tracing, based on impact location, time, and NEO distribution.

## Key findings

- Impact speed and direction can be constrained before impact.
- The method successfully estimated conditions for Chelyabinsk and Vinales events.
- Improved predictions can enhance preparedness for meteoroid impacts.

## Abstract

Every year, a few metre-sized meteoroids impact the atmosphere of the Earth. Most (if not all) of them are undetectable before the impact. Therefore, predicting where and how they will fall seems to be an impossible task. In this letter we show compelling evidence that we can constrain in advance, the dynamical and geometrical conditions of an impact. For this purpose, we analyse the well-documented case of the Chelyabinsk (Russia) impact and the more recent and smaller Vi\~nales (Cuba) event, whose conditions we estimate and provide here. After using the {\em Gravitational Ray Tracing} algorithm (GRT) to "predict" the impact conditions of the aforementioned events, we find that the speed, incoming direction and (marginally) the orbital elements of the corresponding meteoroids could be constrained in advance, starting only on one hand, with the geographical location and time of the impact, and on the other hand, with the distribution in configuration space of Near Earth Objects (NEOs). Any improvement in our capability to predict or at least to constrain impact properties of medium-sized and large meteoroids, will help us to be better prepared for its potentially damaging effects.