# The Sensitivity of Electric Power Infrastructure Resilience to the Spatial Distribution of Disaster Impacts

## TL;DR

This paper investigates how the spatial distribution of disaster impacts affects the resilience assessment of electric power infrastructure, revealing that ignoring spatial factors leads to overconfidence in recovery estimates.

## Contribution

It introduces a method to incorporate spatial distribution data into resilience metrics, significantly improving the accuracy of infrastructure recovery assessments.

## Key findings

- Spatial distribution greatly influences resilience estimates.
- Ignoring spatial factors overstates confidence in recovery metrics.
- Improved characterization alters understanding of system properties like antifragility.

## Abstract

Credibly assessing the resilience of energy infrastructure in the face of natural disasters is a salient concern facing researchers, government officials, and community members. Here, we explore the influence of the spatial distribution of disruptions due to hurricanes and other natural hazards on the resilience of power distribution systems. We find that incorporating information about the spatial distribution of disaster impacts has significant implications for estimating infrastructure resilience. Specifically, the uncertainty associated with estimated infrastructure resilience metrics to spatially distributed disaster-induced disruptions is much higher than determined by previous methods. We present a case study of an electric power distribution grid impacted by a major landfalling hurricane. We show that improved characterizations of disaster disruption drastically change the way in which the grid recovers, including changes in emergent system properties such as antifragility. Our work demonstrates that previous methods for estimating critical infrastructure resilience may be overstating the confidence associated with estimated network recoveries due to the lack of consideration of the spatial structure of disruptions.