Winning Is Not Everything: A contextual analysis of hockey face-offs

TL;DR

This paper introduces a new approach to evaluating hockey face-offs by analyzing post-face-off game events, emphasizing the importance of directionality and player handedness over simple win percentages.

Contribution

It proposes an expected events face-off model and a wins above expected metric that account for puck direction and game context to assess face-off value.

Findings

Not all face-off wins are equal in value.

Directed face-offs to high-value areas create more game advantage.

Post-face-off strategies significantly impact subsequent game events.

Abstract

This paper takes a different approach to evaluating face-offs in ice hockey. Instead of looking at win percentages, the de facto measure of successful face-off takers for decades, focuses on the game events following the face-off and how directionality, clean wins, and player handedness play a significant role in creating value. This will demonstrate how not all face-off wins are made equal: some players consistently create post-face-off value through clean wins and by directing the puck to high-value areas of the ice. As a result, we propose an expected events face-off model as well as a wins above expected model that take into account the value added on a face-off by targeting the puck to specific areas on the ice in various contexts, as well as the impact this has on subsequent game events.