# Six-Day Footraces in the Post-Pedestrianism Era

## TL;DR

This study analyzes 277 six-day race performances from 1981 to 2018, revealing participation trends, record distances, and forecasting record-breaking probabilities using historical data and modeling.

## Contribution

It provides a comprehensive analysis of six-day race data over 37 years and applies a forecasting model to predict future record-breaking chances.

## Key findings

- Men outnumber women 3:1 in participation.
- Men's world record is 644.2 miles; women's is 549.1 miles.
- 53% chance men's record will be broken in a decade.

## Abstract

In a six-day footrace, competitors accumulate as much distance as possible on foot over 144 consecutive hours by circumambulating a loop course. Now an obscure event on the fringe of ultra running and contested by amateurs, six-day races and the associated sport of pedestrianism used to be a lucrative professional athletic endeavor. Indeed, pedestrianism was the most popular spectator sport in America c. 1874-c. 1881. We analyzed data from 277 six-day races spanning 37 years in the post-pedestrianism era (1981-2018). Men outnumber women 3:1 in six-day race participation. The men's (women's) six-day world record is 644.2 (549.1) miles and the top 4% achieve 500 (450) miles. Adopting the forecasting model of Godsey (2012), we predict a 53% (21%) probability that the men's (women's) world record will be broken within the next decade.