Magnitude Of Earthquakes Controls The Size Distribution Of Their Triggered Events

TL;DR

This paper reveals that earthquake magnitudes follow a complex distribution with three distinct ta-values, indicating a correlation between triggered and triggering events, which improves seismic forecasting models.

Contribution

It introduces a new magnitude distribution model with three ta-values, capturing correlations in triggered earthquakes, enhancing the ETAS model's accuracy.

Findings

Earthquake magnitudes exhibit three distinct ta-values.

Triggered earthquake magnitudes are correlated with the triggering event.

The new model improves seismic catalog description and forecasting potential.

Abstract

The driving concept behind one of the most successful statistical forecasting models, the ETAS model, has been that the seismicity is driven by spontaneously occurring background earthquakes that cascade into multitudes of triggered earthquakes. In nearly all generalizations of the ETAS model, the magnitudes of the background and the triggered earthquakes are assumed to follow Gutenberg-Richter law with the same exponent (\b{eta}-value). Furthermore, the magnitudes of the triggered earthquakes are always assumed to be independent of the magnitude of the triggering earthquake. Using an EM algorithm applied to the Californian earthquake catalogue, we show that the distribution of earthquake magnitudes exhibits three distinct \b{eta}-values: \b{eta}_b for background events; \b{eta}_a-{\delta} and \b{eta}_a+{\delta}, respectively, for triggered events below and above the magnitude of the triggering earthquake; the two last values express a correlation between the magnitudes of triggered events with that of the triggering earthquake, a feature so far absent in all proposed operational generalizations of the ETAS model. The ETAS model incorporating this kinked magnitude distribution provides by far the best description of seismic catalogs and could thus have the best forecasting potential. We speculate that the kinked magnitude distribution may result from the system tending to restore the symmetry of the regional displacement gradient tensor that has been broken by the initiating event. The general emerging concept could be that while the background events occur primarily to accommodate the symmetric stress tensor at the boundaries of the system, the triggered earthquakes are quasi-Goldstone fluctuations of a self-organized critical deformation state.