Predicting the Stock Price of Frontier Markets Using Modified Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model and Machine Learning

TL;DR

This paper compares a modified Black-Scholes model and machine learning techniques for predicting frontier market stock prices, finding machine learning generally provides more accurate predictions and capturing market volatility effectively.

Contribution

It introduces a modified Black-Scholes model tailored for frontier markets and demonstrates the effectiveness of machine learning algorithms in stock price prediction.

Findings

Machine learning algorithms outperform the modified BSOPM in prediction accuracy.

Volatility increases significantly with overpricing, indicating potential market downturns.

The modified BSOPM is explained through analogies with quantum physics equations.

Abstract

The Black-Scholes Option pricing model (BSOPM) has long been in use for valuation of equity options to find the prices of stocks. In this work, using BSOPM, we have come up with a comparative analytical approach and numerical technique to find the price of call option and put option and considered these two prices as buying price and selling price of stocks of frontier markets so that we can predict the stock price (close price). Changes have been made to the model to find the parameters strike price and the time of expiration for calculating stock price of frontier markets. To verify the result obtained using modified BSOPM we have used machine learning approach using the software Rapidminer, where we have adopted different algorithms like the decision tree, ensemble learning method and neural network. It has been observed that, the prediction of close price using machine learning is very similar to the one obtained using BSOPM. Machine learning approach stands out to be a better predictor over BSOPM, because Black-Scholes-Merton equation includes risk and dividend parameter, which changes continuously. We have also numerically calculated volatility. As the prices of the stocks goes high due to overpricing, volatility increases at a tremendous rate and when volatility becomes very high market tends to fall, which can be observed and determined using our modified BSOPM. The proposed modified BSOPM has also been explained based on the analogy of Schrodinger equation (and heat equation) of quantum physics.