# Parameter estimates of the 2016-2017 Zika outbreak in Costa Rica: An Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) Approach

## TL;DR

This study models the 2016-2017 Zika outbreak in Costa Rica using an advanced Bayesian approach to estimate transmission parameters and assess outbreak dynamics.

## Contribution

It introduces an ABC method to estimate key epidemiological parameters and the basic reproductive number for Zika in Costa Rica.

## Key findings

- Estimated transmission parameters and {
m R}_0 distribution.
- Identified key factors influencing Zika spread.
- Provided sensitivity analysis of outbreak dynamics.

## Abstract

In Costa Rica, the first known cases of Zika were reported in 2016. We looked at the 2016-2017 Zika outbreak and explored the transmission dynamics using weekly reported data. A nonlinear differential equation single-outbreak model with sexual transmission, as well as host availability for vector-feeding was used to estimate key parameters, fit the data and compute the {\it basic reproductive number}, $\mathcal{R}_0$, distribution. Furthermore, a sensitivity and elasticity analysis was computed based on the $\mathcal{R}_0$ parameters.