Observed lifespan differential - global trends, policy impact and computational methods

TL;DR

This paper analyzes global trends in the gender lifespan gap from 1960 to 2014, revealing its non-linear dynamics, associations with disruptive events, and introduces a new computational method for estimating this differential from mortality data.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive analysis of lifespan differential trends worldwide and introduces a novel method for calculating this differential from mortality indicators.

Findings

The lifespan differential trend often reverts to stagnation or decline after initial growth.

Disruptive events like wars and policy changes significantly impact lifespan dynamics.

A new method for estimating lifespan differential from subpopulation mortality data is proposed.

Abstract

The issue of longevity has been long time recognized as one of key concepts in demography. A particular aspect of longevity addressed in this paper is the difference in average observed duration of life for female and male population, called observed lifespan differential. Using the data from Human Mortality Database, the dynamics of the observed lifespan differential is studied for a large number of countries worldwide from 1960 to 2014. An interesting phenomenon that the growing trend of the observed lifespan differential at the beginning of the studied interval does not persist, i.e. that it reverts to stagnation or even decline is revealed for a large majority of countries in the dataset. In a number of case studies, a strong association of lifespan dynamic with disruptive events such as wars, dissolutions or integrations of states or policy measures is demonstrated. Finally, a novel method of calculating the observed lifespan differential of a population from mortality indicators of its subpopulations is introduced and applied to the analysis of the observed lifespan differential in Israel from 1990 to 2000.