# Spreading of an infectious disease between different locations

## TL;DR

This paper investigates how local adaptive behaviors in agents can unintentionally increase disease spread across regions, using a theoretical model and empirical data from Italy's bovine database.

## Contribution

It introduces a dynamical model of disease spread between two locations with agent adaptation and supports it with empirical data from Italy.

## Key findings

- Adaptive behavior can increase systemic infectiveness
- The model explains the mechanism of cross-location disease spread
- Empirical data supports the theoretical findings

## Abstract

The endogenous adaptation of agents, that may adjust their local contact network in response to the risk of being infected, can have the perverse effect of increasing the overall systemic infectiveness of a disease. We study a dynamical model over two geographically distinct but interacting locations, to better understand theoretically the mechanism at play. Moreover, we provide empirical motivation from the Italian National Bovine Database, for the period 2006-2013.