A minimal HIV-AIDS infection model with general incidence rate and application to Morocco data

TL;DR

This paper presents a minimal HIV-AIDS infection model with a general incidence rate, analyzing its stability, threshold parameters, and applying it to Moroccan data to accurately predict infection dynamics.

Contribution

The study introduces a biologically and mathematically well-posed HIV-AIDS model with a general incidence rate, including stability analysis and real data calibration for Morocco.

Findings

Model is well-posed and biologically valid

Identifies threshold parameters for infection clearance or persistence

Accurately predicts HIV-AIDS dynamics in Morocco

Abstract

We study the global dynamics of a SICA infection model with general incidence rate. The proposed model is calibrated with cumulative cases of infection by HIV-AIDS in Morocco from 1986 to 2015. We first prove that our model is biologically and mathematically well-posed. Stability analysis of different steady states is performed and threshold parameters are identified where the model exhibits clearance of infection or maintenance of a chronic infection. Furthermore, we examine the robustness of the model to some parameter values by examining the sensitivity of the basic reproduction number. Finally, using numerical simulations with real data from Morocco, we show that the model predicts well such reality.