Does the risk of death continue to rise among supercentenarians?

TL;DR

This paper critically examines recent claims that mortality risk continues to increase after age 110, arguing that the evidence is inconclusive due to data and analysis issues, and that the hypothesis remains unproven.

Contribution

The paper challenges recent findings on mortality increase after age 110 by highlighting data selection, analysis, and presentation flaws, emphasizing the need for more rigorous evidence.

Findings

Recent study's data selection was arbitrary

Statistical analysis was inappropriate

Results presentation was misleading

Abstract

A recent study in the 2017 Living to 100 Monograph published by the Society of Actuaries suggests, in contrast to previous research, that the risk of death after 110 increases with age. By fitting a Gompertz model to estimated central death rates for the oldest old, the authors challenge existing theory and empirical research indicating a deceleration of mortality at older ages and the emergence of a plateau. We argue that their results are inconclusive for three reasons: (1) the data selection was arbitrary; (2) the statistical analysis was inappropriate; and (3) the presentation of the results is misleading and inadequate. We therefore claim that the hypothesis that the human force of mortality increases after age 110 has not been proved.