Long term surface-air temperature variations over the Indian region during 1970-2009

TL;DR

This study analyzes surface-air temperature trends over India from 1970 to 2009, revealing a 0.4°C increase, periodic variations, and potential links to solar activity, GCR fluxes, and ENSO, using a detailed gridded dataset.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive analysis of temperature variations over India with detailed error assessment and explores possible natural causes of observed temperature structures.

Findings

Temperature increased by about 0.4°C from 1970 to 2009.

Annual temperature series show 3-5 year periodic variations.

Statistical errors are lower than the observed temperature trend.

Abstract

Global and regional annual mean temperature data have been analysed by many groups to determine the linear trends of temperature over climatological time scales. The near consistent results generally show an increase of about 0.07 {\deg}C per decade during the 20th Century. But many basic questions including spatial and temporal data gaps, non-uniform distribution of observing sites, superposition of internal/natural variations at different scales with parametric feedbacks etc., still remain unresolved. This paper mainly deals with a detailed study of the climatological variations of surface-air temperatures over the Indian region using a well-tested, verified, researched and gridded (1{\deg}x1{\deg}) daily mean temperature data set for the period 1970-2009. The annual mean temperatures estimated with different spatial integration show linear trends with an increase of about 0.4 {\deg}C during this period. A detailed error analysis of the voluminous data shows that the statistical errors at 95% confidence interval are lower than that of the increase in temperatures determined from its linear trend. The annual mean temperature time series also shows consistent and nearly phase coherent periodic variations of 3-5 years with an average magnitude of $\pm$0.4 {\deg}C. Possible causes of these temperature structures due to changes in solar activity, Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) fluxes and El Nino and Southern (ENSO) are examined.