Religion and Terrorism: Evidence from Ramadan Fasting

TL;DR

This study investigates how Ramadan fasting influences terrorism, finding that more intense fasting correlates with fewer terrorist events, possibly due to reduced public support and terrorist group capabilities.

Contribution

It provides causal evidence linking religious fasting intensity during Ramadan to reductions in terrorism, using unique identification exploiting Islamic calendar variations.

Findings

More intense Ramadan fasting reduces terrorist events.

Fasting decreases public support for terrorism.

Fasting impairs terrorist groups' operational capabilities.

Abstract

We study the effect of religion and intense religious experiences on terrorism by focusing on one of the five pillars of Islam: Ramadan fasting. For identification, we exploit two facts: First, daily fasting from dawn to sunset during Ramadan is considered mandatory for most Muslims. Second, the Islamic calendar is not synchronized with the solar cycle. We find a robust negative effect of more intense Ramadan fasting on terrorist events within districts and country-years in predominantly Muslim countries. This effect seems to operate partly through decreases in public support for terrorism and the operational capabilities of terrorist groups.