Fixing Match-Fixing: Optimal schedules to promote competitiveness

TL;DR

This paper develops a method to evaluate and improve the competitiveness of tournament formats, specifically applying it to the FIFA World Cup to reduce collusion and increase excitement in final group stage matches.

Contribution

It introduces a general method for assessing competitiveness and proposes format changes to enhance match stakes and reduce collusion in major tournaments.

Findings

Proposed format adjustments increase last-round match competitiveness.

Evaluated new formats for the 2026 World Cup and UEFA Euro.

Reduced opportunities for collusion and match-fixing.

Abstract

In the last round of the FIFA World Cup group stage, games for which the outcome does not affect the selection of the qualified teams are played with little enthusiasm. Furthermore, a team that has already qualified may take into account other factors, such as the opponents it will face in the next stage of the competition so that, depending on the results in the other groups and the scheduling of the next stage, winning the game may not be in its best interest. Even more critically, there may be situations in which a simple draw will qualify both teams for the next stage of the competition. Any situation in which the two opposing teams do not play competitively is detrimental to the sport, and, above all, can lead to collusion and match-fixing opportunities. We here develop a relatively general method of evaluating competitiveness and apply it to the current format of the World Cup group stage. We then propose changes to the current format in order to increase the stakes in the last round of games of the group stage, making games more exciting to watch and, at the same time, reducing any collusion opportunities. We appeal to the same method to evaluate a "groups of 3" format which will be introduced in the 2026 World Cup edition as well as a format similar to the one of the current Euro UEFA Cup.