Bayesian analysis of the hardening in AMS-02 nuclei spectra

TL;DR

This paper uses Bayesian analysis to investigate the spectral hardening of primary and secondary cosmic ray nuclei, exploring two models and analyzing parameter fits to understand cosmic ray propagation and source characteristics.

Contribution

It introduces a Bayesian framework to compare two models explaining spectral hardening and provides detailed parameter fitting insights for cosmic ray nuclei.

Findings

Both models can reproduce spectral hardening with current data.

Re-scale factors differ systematically between primary and secondary nuclei.

Beryllium shows unique propagation and production characteristics.

Abstract

Based on the precise nuclei data released by AMS-02, we study the spectra hardening of both the primary (proton, helium, carbon, oxygen, and the primary component of nitrogen) and the secondary (anti-proton, lithium, beryllium, boron and the secondary component of nitrogen) cosmic ray (CR) nuclei. With the diffusion-reacceleration model, we consider two schemes to reproduce the hardening in the spectra: (i) A high-rigidity break in primary source injection; (ii) A high-rigidity break in diffusion coefficient. The global fitting results show that both schemes could reproduce the spectra hardening in current status. More precise multi-TV data (especially the data of secondary CR species) is needed if one wants to distinguish these two schemes. In our global fitting, each of the nuclei species is allocated an independent solar modulation potential and a re-scale factor (which accounts for the isotopic abundance for primary nuclei species and uncertainties of production cross section or inhomogeneity of CR sources and propagation for secondary nuclei species). The fitting values of these two parameter classes show us some hints on some new directions in CR physics. All the fitted re-scale factors of primary nuclei species have values that systematically smaller than 1.0, while that of secondary nuclei species are systematically larger than 1.0. Moreover, both the re-scale factor and solar modulation potential of beryllium have values which are obviously different from other species. This might indicate that beryllium has the specificity not only on its propagation in the heliosphere, but also on its production cross section. All these new results should be seriously studied in the future.