Effects of migration on vector-borne diseases with forward and backward stage progression

TL;DR

This paper develops a comprehensive vector-borne disease model incorporating multiple infectious stages and immigration, analyzing how migration influences disease transmission and potential control strategies.

Contribution

It introduces a novel class of models with forward and backward stage progression, capturing complex migration effects on disease dynamics.

Findings

Model shows conditions where migration can break the transmission chain.

Migration patterns significantly influence disease persistence or eradication.

The model provides insights into controlling vector-borne diseases with immigration.

Abstract

Is it possible to break the host-vector chain of transmission when there is an influx of infectious hosts into a na\"{i}ve population and competent vector? To address this question, a class of vector-borne disease models with an arbitrary number of infectious stages that account for immigration of infective individuals is formulated. The proposed model accounts for forward and backward progression, capturing the mitigation and aggravation to and from any stages of the infection, respectively. The model has a rich dynamic, which depends on the patterns of infected immigrant influx into the host population and connectivity of the transfer between infectious classes. We provide conditions under which the answer of the initial question is positive.