Adaptive Low-Nonnegative-Rank Approximation for State Aggregation of Markov Chains

TL;DR

This paper introduces a convex optimization-based method for identifying state aggregation structures in Markov chains by approximating the transition matrix with low nonnegative rank, improving interpretability and efficiency.

Contribution

It proposes a novel atomic regularizer as a convex surrogate for nonnegative rank and develops algorithms to effectively find the state aggregation structure.

Findings

Method accurately identifies meta-states in synthetic data.

Algorithm converges reliably to global solutions.

Applied successfully to real transportation data.

Abstract

This paper develops a low-nonnegative-rank approximation method to identify the state aggregation structure of a finite-state Markov chain under an assumption that the state space can be mapped into a handful of meta-states. The number of meta-states is characterized by the nonnegative rank of the Markov transition matrix. Motivated by the success of the nuclear norm relaxation in low rank minimization problems, we propose an atomic regularizer as a convex surrogate for the nonnegative rank and formulate a convex optimization problem. Because the atomic regularizer itself is not computationally tractable, we instead solve a sequence of problems involving a nonnegative factorization of the Markov transition matrices by using the proximal alternating linearized minimization method. Two methods for adjusting the rank of factorization are developed so that local minima are escaped. One is to append an additional column to the factorized matrices, which can be interpreted as an approximation of a negative subgradient step. The other is to reduce redundant dimensions by means of linear combinations. Overall, the proposed algorithm very likely converges to the global solution. The efficiency and statistical properties of our approach are illustrated on synthetic data. We also apply our state aggregation algorithm on a Manhattan transportation data set and make extensive comparisons with an existing method.