Optimal control of electricity input given an uncertain demand

TL;DR

This paper develops an optimal control strategy for electricity supply under uncertain demand modeled by a stochastic process with jumps, using analytical and numerical methods to compare different information levels.

Contribution

It introduces a novel approach combining stochastic demand modeling with linear transport equations and reformulates the problem for classical optimization solvers.

Findings

Optimal power supply levels depend on available information.

Analytical solutions are derived for different demand scenarios.

Numerical results illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed control strategies.

Abstract

We consider the problem of determining an optimal strategy for electricity injection that faces an uncertain power demand stream. This demand stream is modeled via an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with an additional jump component, whereas the power flow is represented by the linear transport equation. We analytically determine the optimal amount of power supply for different levels of available information and compare the results to each other. For numerical purposes, we reformulate the original problem in terms of the cost function such that classical optimization solvers can be directly applied. The computational results are illustrated for different scenarios.