A Blended Deep Learning Approach for Predicting User Intended Actions

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel end-to-end deep learning model that effectively predicts user attrition by integrating multi-source user data and tracking activity evolution, outperforming traditional methods and aiding business decision-making.

Contribution

It presents a new deep learning scheme combining multi-path learning, multi-snapshot techniques, and historical user intentions for improved attrition prediction.

Findings

Outperforms existing approaches on multiple datasets

Provides effective interpretation and visualization of user activity patterns

Identifies critical factors influencing user attrition

Abstract

User intended actions are widely seen in many areas. Forecasting these actions and taking proactive measures to optimize business outcome is a crucial step towards sustaining the steady business growth. In this work, we focus on pre- dicting attrition, which is one of typical user intended actions. Conventional attrition predictive modeling strategies suffer a few inherent drawbacks. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel end-to-end learning scheme to keep track of the evolution of attrition patterns for the predictive modeling. It integrates user activity logs, dynamic and static user profiles based on multi-path learning. It exploits historical user records by establishing a decaying multi-snapshot technique. And finally it employs the precedent user intentions via guiding them to the subsequent learning procedure. As a result, it addresses all disadvantages of conventional methods. We evaluate our methodology on two public data repositories and one private user usage dataset provided by Adobe Creative Cloud. The extensive experiments demonstrate that it can offer the appealing performance in comparison with several existing approaches as rated by different popular metrics. Furthermore, we introduce an advanced interpretation and visualization strategy to effectively characterize the periodicity of user activity logs. It can help to pinpoint important factors that are critical to user attrition and retention and thus suggests actionable improvement targets for business practice. Our work will provide useful insights into the prediction and elucidation of other user intended actions as well.