Estimating menarcheal age distribution from partially recalled data

TL;DR

This paper develops statistical models to estimate the distribution of menarcheal age from partially recalled data, accounting for recall bias and censoring, and demonstrates improved confidence interval precision.

Contribution

It introduces parametric and non-parametric estimators for interval censored data with recall bias, including consistency proofs and practical computational methods.

Findings

Partially recalled data improves confidence interval accuracy.

The multinomial model for recall probabilities fits the data well.

Simulation studies validate the estimators' performance.

Abstract

In a cross-sectional study, adolescent and young adult females were asked to recall the time of menarche, if experienced. Some respondents recalled the date exactly, some recalled only the month or the year of the event, and some were unable to recall anything. We consider estimation of the menarcheal age distribution from this interval censored data. A~complicated interplay between age-at-event and calendar time, together with the evident fact of memory fading with time, makes the censoring informative. We propose a model where the probabilities of various types of recall would depend on the time since menarche. For parametric estimation we model these probabilities using multinomial regression function. Establishing consistency and asymptotic normality of the parametric MLE requires a bit of tweaking of the standard asymptotic theory, as the data format varies from case to case. We also provide a non-parametric MLE, propose a computationally simpler approximation, and establish the consistency of both these estimators under mild conditions. We study the small sample performance of the parametric and non-parametric estimators through Monte Carlo simulations. Moreover, we provide a graphical check of the assumption of the multinomial model for the recall probabilities, which appears to hold for the menarcheal data set. Our analysis shows that the use of the partially recalled part of the data indeed leads to smaller confidence intervals of the survival function.