Modelling the effects of awareness-based interventions to control the mosaic disease of Jatropha curcas

TL;DR

This paper develops a mathematical model to study how awareness-based interventions, like campaigns and observation, can control mosaic disease in Jatropha curcas, highlighting the importance of awareness in disease eradication and management.

Contribution

The paper introduces a novel mathematical model incorporating awareness effects from campaigns and observation, analyzing their impact on disease dynamics in Jatropha curcas.

Findings

Identification of parameter regions for disease eradication and endemic stability

Demonstration of oscillatory infection levels under certain conditions

Support of analytical results through numerical simulations

Abstract

Plant diseases are responsible for substantial and sometimes devastating economic and societal costs and thus are a major limiting factor for stable and sustainable agricultural production. Diseases of crops are particular crippling in developing countries that are heavily dependent on agriculture for food security and income. Various techniques have been developed to reduce the negative impact of plant diseases and eliminate the associated parasites, but the success of these approaches strongly depends on population awareness and the degree of engagement with disease control and prevention programs. In this paper we derive and analyse a mathematical model of mosaic disease of {\it Jatropha curcas}, an important biofuel plant, with particular emphasis on the effects of interventions in the form of nutrients and insecticides, whose use depends on the level of population awareness. Two contributions to disease awareness are considered in the model: global awareness campaigns, and awareness from observing infected plants. All steady states of the model are found, and their stability is analysed in terms of system parameters. We identify parameter regions associated with eradication of disease, stable endemic infection, and periodic oscillations in the level of infection. Analytical results are supported by numerical simulations that illustrate the behaviour of the model in different dynamical regimes. Implications of theoretical results for practical implementation of disease control are discussed.