Influence of introducing high speed railways on intercity travel behavior in Vietnam

TL;DR

This study develops an integrated demand forecasting model to assess how introducing high-speed rail in Vietnam influences intercity travel behavior, combining survey data and analyzing trip, destination, and mode choices.

Contribution

It presents a novel integrated model combining RP and SP data to accurately predict intercity travel responses to high-speed rail implementation in Vietnam.

Findings

Trip generation and mode choice are interrelated.

High-speed rail influences destination and mode preferences.

Integrated modeling improves demand forecasting accuracy.

Abstract

It is one of hottest topics in Vietnam whether to construct a High Speed Rail (HSR) system or not in near future. To analyze the impacts of introducing the HSR on the intercity travel behavior, this research develops an integrated intercity demand forecasting model to represent trip generation and frequency, destination choice and travel mode choice behavior. For this purpose, a comprehensive questionnaire survey with both Revealed Preference (RP) information (an inter-city trip diary) and Stated Preference (SP) information was conducted in Hanoi in 2011. In the SP part, not only HSR, but also Low Cost Carrier is included in the choice set, together with other existing inter-city travel modes. To make full use of the advantages of each type of data and to overcome their disadvantages, RP and SP data are combined to describe the destination choice and mode choice behavior, while trip generation and frequency are represented by using the RP data. The model estimation results show the inter-relationship between trip generation and frequency, destination choice and travel mode choice, and confirm that those components should not dealt with separately.