Forecasting water vapour above the sites of ESO's Very Large Telescope (VLT) and the Large Binocular Telescope (LBT)

TL;DR

This study validates the Meso-NH mesoscale model's ability to accurately forecast atmospheric water vapour above ESO's VLT and LBT sites, aiding observational scheduling in infrared astronomy.

Contribution

It demonstrates the reliable performance of the Meso-NH model in predicting precipitable water vapour at two major observatory sites, supporting operational forecasting systems.

Findings

Excellent forecast accuracy for low PWV values at VLT.

Strong agreement between model predictions and satellite data at LBT.

Supports the use of Meso-NH in operational atmospheric forecasting.

Abstract

Water vapour in the atmosphere is the main source of the atmospheric opacity in the infrared and sub-millimetric regimes and its value plays a critical role in observations done with instruments working at these wavelengths on ground-based telescopes. The scheduling of scientific observational programs with instruments such as the VLT Imager and Spectrometer for mid Infrared (VISIR) at Cerro Paranal and the Large Binocular Telescope Interferometer (LBTI) at Mount Graham would definitely benefit from the ability to forecast the atmospheric water vapour content. In this contribution we present a study aiming at validating the performance of the non-hydrostatic mesoscale Meso-NH model in reliably predicting precipitable water vapour (PWV) above the two sites. For the VLT case we use, as a reference, measurements done with a Low Humidity and Temperature PROfiling radiometer (LHATPRO) that, since a few years, is operating routinely at the VLT. LHATPRO has been extensively validated on previous studies. We obtain excellent performances on forecasts performed with this model, including for the extremely low values of the PWV (<= 1 mm). For the LBTI case we compare one solar year predictions obtained with the Meso-NH model with satellite estimates again obtaining an excellent agreement. This study represents a further step in validating outputs of atmospheric parameters forecasts from the ALTA Center, an operational and automatic forecast system conceived to support observations at LBT and LBTI.