Directed Energy Interception of Satellites

TL;DR

This paper models the likelihood of high-power directed energy beams intercepting Earth-orbiting satellites, finding the probability to be very low, which informs safe operation protocols for advanced space propulsion and power systems.

Contribution

It introduces a probabilistic model to assess satellite interception risk from directed energy systems, enabling safe beam operation and extending to future satellite constellations.

Findings

Interception probability is approximately 10^-4 for active satellites.

Model can predict safe beam activation times and turn-off points.

Framework adaptable to future satellite launches and other laser applications.

Abstract

High power Earth and orbital-based directed energy (DE) systems pose a potential hazard to Earth orbiting spacecraft. The use of very high power, large aperture DE systems to propel spacecraft is being pursued as the only known, feasible method to achieve relativistic flight in our NASA Starlight and Breakthrough Starshot programs. In addition, other beamed power mission scenarios, such as orbital debris removal and our NASA program using DE for powering high performance ion engine missions, pose similar concerns. It is critical to quantify the probability and rates of interception of the DE beam with the approximately 2000 active Earth orbiting spacecraft. We have modeled the interception of the beam with satellites by using their orbital parameters and computing the likelihood of interception for many of the scenarios of the proposed systems we are working on. We are able to simulate both the absolute interception as well as the distance and angle from the beam to the spacecraft, and have modeled a number of scenarios to obtain general probabilities. We have established that the probability of beam interception of any active satellite, including its orbital position uncertainty, during any of the proposed mission scenarios is low ($\approx10^{-4}$). The outcome of this work gives us the ability to predict when to energize the beam without intercept, as well as the capability to turn off the DE as needed for extended mission scenarios. As additional satellites are launched, our work can be readily extended to accommodate them. Our work can also be used to predict interception of astronomical adaptive optics guide-star lasers as well as more general laser use.