On testing frame-dragging with LAGEOS and a recently announced geodetic satellite
Lorenzo Iorio

TL;DR
This paper critically examines the feasibility of testing the Lense-Thirring effect using LAGEOS and a new geodetic satellite, highlighting significant challenges from Earth's gravity field uncertainties and orbital decay effects.
Contribution
It provides a detailed analysis of the potential errors and limitations in using these satellites for precise relativistic measurements, questioning the claimed accuracy of upcoming tests.
Findings
Uncertainty in Earth's gravity models can cause 70-80% error in Lense-Thirring measurements.
Orbital decay of LAGEOS introduces a 20-40% bias over 5-10 years.
Systematic errors from inclination decay can reach 2-14%.
Abstract
Recently, Ciufolini and coworkers announced the forthcoming launch of a new cannonball geodetic satellite in 2019. It should be injected in an essentially circular path with the same semimajor axis of LAGEOS, in orbit since 1976, and an inclination of its orbital plane supplementary with respect to that of its existing cousin. According to their proponents, the sum of the satellites' precessions of the longitudes of the ascending nodes should allow one to test the general relativistic Lense-Thirring effect to a accuracy level, with a contribution of the mismodeling in the even zonal harmonics of the geopotential to the total error budget as little as . Actually, such an ambitious goal seems to be hardly attainable because of the direct and indirect impact of, at least, the first even zonal . On the one hand, the…
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