Microlens mass determination for Gaia's predicted photometric events

TL;DR

This paper identifies upcoming Gaia microlensing events, confirms lens types and masses through spectroscopy, and introduces a new method to infer lens mass from densely sampled ground-based lightcurves.

Contribution

It presents a novel algorithm for determining microlens masses using Gaia data combined with ground-based observations.

Findings

Lens masses can be estimated within 20% accuracy with dense ground-based sampling.

Two candidate events with high amplification were identified and characterized.

Spectroscopic confirmation of lens types supports the mass inference method.

Abstract

We used Gaia Data Release 2 to search for upcoming photometric microlensing events, identifying two candidates with high amplification. In the case of candidate 1, a spectrum of the lens (l1) confirms it is a usdM3 subdwarf with mass $\approx 0.11 M_\odot$, while the event reaches maximum amplification of $20^{+20}_{-10}$ mmag on November 3rd 2019 ($\pm$1d). For candidate 2, the lens (l2) is a metal-poor M dwarf with mass $\approx 0.38 M_\odot$ derived from spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting, and maximum amplification of $10^{+40}_{-10}$ mmag occurs on June 3rd 2019 ($\pm$4d). This permits a new algorithm for mass inference on the microlens. Given the predicted time, the photometric lightcurve of these events can be densely sampled by ground-based telescopes. The lightcurve is a function of the unknown lens mass, together with 8 other parameters for all of which Gaia provides measurements and uncertainties. Leveraging this prior information on the source and lens provided by Gaia's astrometric solution, and assuming that a ground-based campaign can provide 50 measurements at mmag precision, we show for example that the mass of l1 can be recovered to within 20 per cent (68 per cent confidence limit).