Flux Transport Dynamo: From Modelling Irregularities to Making Predictions

TL;DR

This paper discusses the flux transport dynamo model for the solar cycle, emphasizing how fluctuations in key mechanisms cause irregularities and how understanding these can improve solar cycle predictions.

Contribution

It identifies the primary sources of solar cycle irregularities and suggests that incorporating observational data into the dynamo model can enhance prediction accuracy.

Findings

Fluctuations in the Babcock--Leighton mechanism cause cycle irregularities.

Variations in meridional circulation influence solar cycle strength.

Theoretical understanding enables potential solar cycle predictions.

Abstract

The flux transport dynamo, in which the poloidal magnetic field is generated by the Babcock--Leighton mechanism and the meridional circulation plays a crucial role, has emerged as an attractive model for the solar cycle. Based on theoretical calculations done with this model, we argue that the fluctuations in the Babcock--Leighton mechanism and the fluctuations in the meridional circulation are the most likely causes of the irregularities of the solar cycle. With our increased theoretical understanding of how these irregularities arise, it can be possible to predict a future solar cycle by feeding the appropriate observational data in a theoretical dynamo model.