Predicting a solar cycle before its onset using a flux transport dynamo model

TL;DR

This paper reviews the use of a flux transport dynamo model to predict solar cycle 24, emphasizing the role of Babcock-Leighton mechanism fluctuations and meridional circulation variations in cycle irregularities.

Contribution

It demonstrates how the flux transport dynamo model can successfully predict solar cycle 24 and discusses additional factors influencing cycle irregularities.

Findings

Successful prediction of solar cycle 24 using the model

Identification of meridional circulation fluctuations as a cause of cycle irregularities

Highlighting the role of Babcock-Leighton mechanism fluctuations

Abstract

We begin with a review of the predictions for cycle~24 before its onset. After summarizing the basics of the flux transport dynamo model, we discuss how this model had been used to make a successful prediction of cycle~24, on the assumption that the irregularities of the solar cycle arise due to the fluctuations in the Babcock--Leighton mechanism. We point out that fluctuations in the meridional circulation can be another cause of irregularities in the cycle.