Local risk perception enhances epidemic control

TL;DR

This paper compares different decision-making strategies for epidemic control, finding that local risk perception based on infected contacts is most effective and resource-efficient for reducing disease spread.

Contribution

It introduces and evaluates three modes of epidemiological decision-making, highlighting the effectiveness of local risk perception in epidemic mitigation.

Findings

Local risk perception based on infected contacts is most effective.

Strategies based on local information require fewer resources.

All strategies significantly reduce transmission.

Abstract

As infectious disease outbreaks emerge, public health agencies often enact vaccination and social distancing measures to slow transmission. Their success depends on not only strategies and resources, but also public adherence. Individual willingness to take precautions may be influenced by global factors, such as news media, or local factors, such as infected family members or friends. Here, we compare three modes of epidemiological decision-making in the midst of a growing outbreak. Individuals decide whether to adopt a recommended intervention based on overall disease prevalence, the proportion of social contacts infected, or the number of social contacts infected. While all strategies can substantially mitigate transmission, vaccinating (or self isolating) based on the number of infected acquaintances is expected to achieve the greatest herd immunity and number of infections averted, while requiring the fewest intervention resources.